Nvidia Stock Could Swing Over 7% After Earnings as Market Awaits Key Update
Nvidia (NVDA) stock is expected to move as much as 7.4% in either direction following its quarterly earnings release on May 28, according to options data tracked by Bloomberg. This estimate suggests lower-than-usual volatility, as Nvidia has averaged an 11.3% swing in the trading day after earnings over the past eight quarters.
In its last earnings cycle (February), Nvidia beat Wall Street’s expectations for Q4 but issued a weaker-than-expected gross margin forecast. Shares traded within an 11.4% intraday range the next day — rising up to 2.8% and falling as much as 8.6%, ultimately closing lower by 8.5%.
While a 7.4% swing remains the consensus estimate, traders are also pricing in more moderate scenarios, such as a gain of 5.4% and a loss of 2%, or a drop of 4% with a rebound of 3.4%.
Despite the short-term volatility, Nvidia has rewarded long-term investors. According to data from Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre, Nvidia shares have delivered a median 12-month return of nearly 120% when bought just before an earnings release.
This upcoming earnings report arrives amid uncertainty in AI spending, particularly following concerns over:
Nvidia (NVDA) stock is expected to move as much as 7.4% in either direction following its quarterly earnings release on May 28, according to options data tracked by Bloomberg. This estimate suggests lower-than-usual volatility, as Nvidia has averaged an 11.3% swing in the trading day after earnings over the past eight quarters.
In its last earnings cycle (February), Nvidia beat Wall Street’s expectations for Q4 but issued a weaker-than-expected gross margin forecast. Shares traded within an 11.4% intraday range the next day — rising up to 2.8% and falling as much as 8.6%, ultimately closing lower by 8.5%.
While a 7.4% swing remains the consensus estimate, traders are also pricing in more moderate scenarios, such as a gain of 5.4% and a loss of 2%, or a drop of 4% with a rebound of 3.4%.
Despite the short-term volatility, Nvidia has rewarded long-term investors. According to data from Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre, Nvidia shares have delivered a median 12-month return of nearly 120% when bought just before an earnings release.
This upcoming earnings report arrives amid uncertainty in AI spending, particularly following concerns over:
- A cheaper AI model released by China-based DeepSeek,
- A potential slowdown in AI infrastructure investment by major customers like Microsoft (MSFT),
- Shifting U.S.-China trade policies under the Trump administration.