65% of Nigerians Want Lower Interest Rates as CBN’s MPC Meets Amid Inflation Concerns
The Big Picture
Ahead of its 304th meeting scheduled for February 23–24, 2026, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is facing growing public pressure to cut interest rates.
According to the CBN’s January 2026 Household Expectations Survey:
65% of Nigerians want lending rates reduced
12.2% prefer rates increased
15.1% want rates unchanged
7.7% have no opinion
This comes despite persistent concerns about inflation.
Where Rates Currently Stand
• Monetary Policy Rate (MPR): 27.0%
• A 50-basis-point cut was made in September 2025
• Rates were retained at 27.0% in November 2025
Now, markets are watching to see whether the MPC will pivot toward easing.
Nigerians Want Cheaper Credit — Even If Inflation Rises
When asked to choose between:
• Raising rates to curb inflation
• Keeping rates low even if inflation accelerates
50.1% chose lower rates
41.8% supported tightening
8.2% had no view
This suggests households are prioritizing access to affordable credit and short-term relief over aggressive inflation control.
Inflation Anxiety Still Lingers
Even with rate-cut preference:
•
66.6% believe the economy would weaken if prices rise faster
• Only 9.6% believe it would strengthen
• 20% say it would make no difference
This shows a delicate balance:
Nigerians want relief from high borrowing costs, but they remain wary of rising prices.
Consumer Sentiment Snapshot
Overall Consumer Sentiment Index:
• January: 2.8 points
• December: 4.8 points
(Sentiment remains positive but moderated)
Economic Condition Index:
• 7.4 points (Optimistic outlook)
Family Income Sentiment:
• 9.1 points (Improving expectations)
Family Financial Situation:
• -8.2 points (Household finances still under pressure)
This highlights a gap between optimism about the economy and strain on personal finances.
Spending Behaviour: Essentials First
Households are prioritising:
Food & household items – 62.7 points
Education – 35.9 points
Transportation – 23.4 points
Demand for big-ticket items remains weak:
• Buying Intention Index: 22.8–28.5 points
(All below the 50-point balance threshold)
This indicates continued caution in discretionary spending.
️ Inside the MPC Divide
At the November 2025 meeting:
• 5 out of 12 MPC members voted for a 50bps cut (to 26.5%)
• Majority voted to retain 27.0%
The dissenters argued:
Sustained disinflation
Stronger external reserves
Improving growth conditions
But the majority remained cautious about inflation risks.
What This Means for Markets
Fixed Income
A rate cut could:
• Lower bond yields
• Trigger price appreciation in existing bonds
Equities
Lower rates typically:
• Improve corporate borrowing costs
• Support stock market liquidity
• Encourage equity reallocation
Currency
Aggressive easing could:
• Pressure the naira
• Affect foreign portfolio inflows
InvestingPort Insight
The CBN faces a policy dilemma:
Cut rates to stimulate growth
OR
Maintain tight policy to anchor inflation
With 65% of Nigerians calling for lower rates, public sentiment clearly favors relief.
However, monetary policy decisions will ultimately depend on:
• Inflation trajectory
• FX stability
• Capital flow dynamics
• External reserves strength
The February MPC decision could set the tone for markets in Q1 2026.
The Big Picture
Ahead of its 304th meeting scheduled for February 23–24, 2026, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is facing growing public pressure to cut interest rates.
According to the CBN’s January 2026 Household Expectations Survey:
65% of Nigerians want lending rates reduced 12.2% prefer rates increased 15.1% want rates unchanged 7.7% have no opinionThis comes despite persistent concerns about inflation.
Where Rates Currently Stand
• Monetary Policy Rate (MPR): 27.0%
• A 50-basis-point cut was made in September 2025
• Rates were retained at 27.0% in November 2025
Now, markets are watching to see whether the MPC will pivot toward easing.
Nigerians Want Cheaper Credit — Even If Inflation RisesWhen asked to choose between:
• Raising rates to curb inflation
• Keeping rates low even if inflation accelerates
50.1% chose lower rates 41.8% supported tightening 8.2% had no viewThis suggests households are prioritizing access to affordable credit and short-term relief over aggressive inflation control.
Inflation Anxiety Still Lingers
Even with rate-cut preference:
•
66.6% believe the economy would weaken if prices rise faster• Only 9.6% believe it would strengthen
• 20% say it would make no difference
This shows a delicate balance:
Nigerians want relief from high borrowing costs, but they remain wary of rising prices.
Consumer Sentiment Snapshot
Overall Consumer Sentiment Index:
• January: 2.8 points
• December: 4.8 points
(Sentiment remains positive but moderated)
Economic Condition Index:
• 7.4 points (Optimistic outlook)
Family Income Sentiment:
• 9.1 points (Improving expectations)
Family Financial Situation:
• -8.2 points (Household finances still under pressure)
This highlights a gap between optimism about the economy and strain on personal finances.
Spending Behaviour: Essentials First
Households are prioritising:
Food & household items – 62.7 points
Education – 35.9 points
Transportation – 23.4 points
Demand for big-ticket items remains weak:
• Buying Intention Index: 22.8–28.5 points
(All below the 50-point balance threshold)
This indicates continued caution in discretionary spending.
️ Inside the MPC Divide
At the November 2025 meeting:
• 5 out of 12 MPC members voted for a 50bps cut (to 26.5%)
• Majority voted to retain 27.0%
The dissenters argued:
Sustained disinflation Stronger external reserves Improving growth conditionsBut the majority remained cautious about inflation risks.
What This Means for Markets
Fixed IncomeA rate cut could:
• Lower bond yields
• Trigger price appreciation in existing bonds
EquitiesLower rates typically:
• Improve corporate borrowing costs
• Support stock market liquidity
• Encourage equity reallocation
CurrencyAggressive easing could:
• Pressure the naira
• Affect foreign portfolio inflows
InvestingPort Insight
The CBN faces a policy dilemma:
Cut rates to stimulate growth
OR
Maintain tight policy to anchor inflation
With 65% of Nigerians calling for lower rates, public sentiment clearly favors relief.
However, monetary policy decisions will ultimately depend on:
• Inflation trajectory
• FX stability
• Capital flow dynamics
• External reserves strength
The February MPC decision could set the tone for markets in Q1 2026.